Possible scenario
Waiver Stays Broad
40% Chance
Trump keeps the sanctions and 500% tariff waiver broadly available, citing energy-price stability and leverage in talks with Moscow. India and China avoid immediate penalties, Russian crude flows remain largely intact, and oil markets price out a near-term supply disruption.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.6%
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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