Possible scenario
Peace Bargaining Advances
25% Chance
The waiver becomes part of a broader diplomatic package involving Ukraine ceasefire talks and the contested Lukoil transaction. Markets focus less on sanctions enforcement and more on whether Moscow offers a verifiable concession.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.