Possible scenario
Congress Pushes Back
25% Chance
Congressional hawks argue the waiver guts the September sanctions law and weakens pressure on Moscow. The administration retains some authority, but hearings, reporting demands, and possible legislative action keep policy risk alive.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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