Possible scenario
Higher-For-Longer Baseline
45% Chance
Markets treat Hammack's warning as consistent with a Fed that is reluctant to cut while demand remains firm and inflation risks look persistent. The most likely path is an extended policy hold, with rate-cut expectations pushed further into 2027 rather than an immediate move toward tightening.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.