Possible scenario
Naval Escalation
27% Chance
Iranian units challenge the blockade more directly, forcing U.S. and allied ships to expand rules of engagement against IRGC Navy assets. The conflict remains maritime-focused but markets begin pricing a wider interruption to Gulf exports.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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