Possible scenario
Managed Naval Containment
38% Chance
CENTCOM keeps the blockade operational but avoids a broader strike campaign, prioritizing escorted routing and inspection corridors outside the most dangerous Hormuz lanes. Iran continues harassment and drone activity, but both sides avoid actions that would force immediate regional war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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