Possible scenario
Disorder Spreads
30% Chance
The personnel shortfall in Paris encourages copycat unrest in other French cities, forcing the government to disperse security units across multiple hotspots. The probability of a temporary nationwide emergency framework rises, creating a modest risk-off reaction in European-exposed assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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