Possible scenario
Curfews Restore Control
40% Chance
The most likely path is that curfews, CRS-8 deployment, mobile gendarmerie reinforcements, and faster prosecutions reduce looting within 48 hours. Home-looting incidents remain politically damaging, but the state shows enough control to prevent a wider national security crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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