Possible scenario
Concessions Defuse Protests
20% Chance
The government pairs policing with cost-of-living concessions, likely including targeted energy, transport, or food support for lower-income households. If unions and local mayors accept talks, the protest momentum can fade without requiring an extended emergency regime.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
- Consumer Services +0.4%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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