Possible scenario
Sustained Houthi Campaign
30% Chance
The Houthis continue launching missiles and drones at Saudi energy and government targets, treating the Aramco headquarters hit as proof of capability. Saudi defenses intercept some attacks, but repeated attempts keep oil markets on edge and raise the probability of temporary disruptions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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