Possible scenario
Regional Escalation
15% Chance
The attack escalates into a broader regional security crisis involving Saudi Arabia, the Houthis, the United States, and indirectly Iran. Markets react more sharply if the conflict appears to threaten Gulf export routes or draws direct US military action beyond defensive support.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.3%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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