Possible scenario
Controlled Saudi Response
45% Chance
The most likely path is a contained Saudi military response against Houthi launch sites and oil-linked targets in Yemen, while Aramco emphasizes that production and exports are unaffected. The strike is highly symbolic and market-moving, but without confirmed damage to processing, pipeline, or export capacity, the immediate impact remains concentrated in oil risk premia and Saudi security risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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