Possible scenario
South Korean Autonomy Push
20% Chance
Seoul concludes that a slower or more conditional OPCON process requires greater national military autonomy. The government expands indigenous strike, missile defense, cyber, and space programs while keeping the U.S. alliance central to deterrence.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.3%
- Technology -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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