Conditions-Based Transfer Delay

Washington and Seoul keep the wartime operational control transfer formally alive but defer it under a revised conditions-based roadmap. This is the most likely outcome because both governments want to preserve alliance credibility while acknowledging South Korea's concern that changing U.S. demands, troop posture reviews, and China-related missions complicate certification.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.