Possible scenario
Russia Retaliates Digitally
27% Chance
Moscow responds through cyber operations rather than a major new kinetic strike, targeting Ukrainian banks, telecoms, and state portals. This would fit Russia's established retaliation pattern while limiting direct escalation with NATO.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Technology -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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