Possible scenario
Rival Power Response
20% Chance
Moscow and Beijing portray the pact as militarization of the Arctic and respond diplomatically or operationally. This raises geopolitical risk premia modestly while supporting defense names and, in some outcomes, strategic-minerals exposure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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