Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment
16% Chance
Oman, Qatar, or European intermediaries reopen a channel focused on missiles, regional attacks, and enrichment-linked sanctions relief. This does not resolve the strategic contest, but it reduces the near-term probability of direct US or Israeli strikes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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