Possible scenario
Deterrence Holds
42% Chance
Iran continues moving missile assembly, fuel storage, and launch-support systems into hardened underground sites. Israel and the United States increase surveillance and sanctions pressure but avoid a major new strike because the facilities are harder to target and escalation risks remain high.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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