Possible scenario
Retaliatory Strikes
30% Chance
Saudi Arabia, backed by U.S. intelligence and air-defense support, conducts strikes on Houthi launchers, depots, and command nodes in Yemen. The operation is meant to restore deterrence, but it carries a material risk of further Houthi attacks on oil and transport infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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