Possible scenario
Regionalization Risk
20% Chance
The conflict begins to involve Israel more directly, either through air-defense cooperation with Saudi Arabia or through strikes on Iranian-linked assets. This is less likely than a contained exchange, but the prior Houthi attacks on Riyadh and Saudi oil infrastructure make wider alignment against the group plausible.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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