Possible scenario
Contained Deterrence
38% Chance
The most likely path is a tense but contained escalation in which Saudi, U.S., and allied air defenses reduce the damage from further Houthi launches. Washington intensifies warnings and deployments, while Oman and other intermediaries press the Houthis and Iran to avoid a broader regional fight.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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