Possible scenario
Ukraine Consolidates Gains
38% Chance
Ukrainian forces hold the ground retaken near Sloviansk and Velykyi Burluk, using artillery, drones, and counter-battery fire to prevent an immediate Russian reversal. This is the most likely outcome because the recent Lyman success and reported Russian losses suggest Russia needs time to regroup before another major push.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.