Possible scenario
Russia Regains Initiative
22% Chance
Russia commits fresh units, heavier glide-bomb strikes, or additional artillery to blunt Ukraine's counterattacks. This scenario is less likely than consolidation or stabilization, but Russia still has capacity to mass fires and exploit Ukrainian manpower constraints.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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