Possible scenario
Front Stabilizes Again
30% Chance
The fighting settles into a positional phase, with neither side able to convert local advances into operational momentum. This is plausible because both Ukrainian and Russian forces have suffered attrition around Lyman, Sloviansk, and the Kharkiv axis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
- +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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