Possible scenario
Strike Wave Broadens
28% Chance
The injury turns the school protests into a wider labor and policing dispute. National unions use the moment to call solidarity actions, raising the risk of transport delays, retail disruption and a short-lived hit to French risk sentiment.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.