Possible scenario
Policing Crisis Deepens
22% Chance
The center of gravity shifts from school policy to police tactics and accountability. The use of GM2L-type grenades, the IGPN process and Amnesty International's accusations become the defining political issues of the next phase.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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