Possible scenario
Relocation Contains Risk
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the withdrawal is treated as a force-protection measure rather than the start of a wider crisis. U.S. Strategic Command preserves bomber readiness from U.S. bases, while UK authorities harden RAF Fairford and continue arrests or surveillance tied to the suspected IRGC-linked network.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Consumer Services +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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