Possible scenario
Pressure On Iran
20% Chance
If Washington and London become more confident in IRGC involvement, the response is likely to be diplomatic, sanctions-focused, and intelligence-led. Markets would price some geopolitical premium, especially in oil and defense, but not a full confrontation unless an incident follows.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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