Possible scenario
Counterterror Probe Expands
25% Chance
The focus shifts from bomber movements to law enforcement, with MI5, counterterror police, and the FBI pursuing the wider network behind the Fairford plot. The risk remains serious but mostly domestic-security oriented, limiting cross-asset market effects.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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