Possible scenario
US Pressure Eases
25% Chance
US officials treat India's reduced Russian purchases and higher Iraqi intake as evidence of compliance with the new tariff framework. That lowers near-term sanctions risk for Indian refiners and keeps trade flows orderly.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.