Possible scenario
Iraq Replaces Russia
45% Chance
Indian state refiners continue shifting marginal crude purchases from Russia to Iraq and other Middle Eastern suppliers after the US tariff law changed the economics of Russian barrels. SOMO's aggressive discounts keep Iraqi grades competitive, making this the most likely near-term path.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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