Possible scenario
Year-End Stall
50% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the ADAPT Act does not clear Congress in 2026 because Senate floor time is scarce and crypto tax language remains politically secondary to broader fiscal negotiations. The September procedural failure on a separate crypto bill reinforces the view that crypto legislation still lacks a reliable Senate coalition.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
- Technology -0.1%
Tickers
- COIN-1.5%
- -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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