Possible scenario
De-escalation Holds
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the Pakistan-Qatar plan creates a temporary but real stand-down, allowing Washington and Tehran to avoid immediate strikes while preserving leverage. Israel, Gulf states, and U.S. Central Command remain on alert, but the near-term escalation ladder pauses.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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