Possible scenario
US Enforcement Escalates
20% Chance
Washington interprets the 16.5% decline as insufficient and increases pressure on banks, insurers and shippers involved in Russian oil flows to India. This would raise compliance costs and could push Indian refiners to make deeper near-term cuts.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Finance -0.2%
- Industrials -0.2%
- Technology -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.