Possible scenario
Managed Import Diversion
45% Chance
Indian refiners continue reducing Russian crude purchases to limit exposure to the new US tariff regime. Replacement barrels come mainly from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE and some US Gulf Coast suppliers, keeping physical supply stable but narrowing refinery margins.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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