Possible scenario
Pakistan Expands Campaign
15% Chance
Islamabad concludes that Taliban promises are insufficient and expands its campaign against suspected TTP infrastructure in Afghanistan. The Taliban retaliates at selected border points but still avoids a full conventional confrontation with Pakistan.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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