Possible scenario
Dialogue Contains Crisis
45% Chance
The Afghan Taliban's call for dialogue leads to indirect or direct talks, likely facilitated by Qatar, China, or clerics with influence on both sides. Islamabad keeps military pressure in reserve but accepts a narrow security mechanism focused on Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan activity and cross-border drones.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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