Possible scenario
Contained Border Fighting
30% Chance
The most tense areas along the Durand Line remain active even as both capitals avoid formal escalation. Pakistan continues targeted strikes and artillery responses, while the Taliban denounces violations but stops short of a broader mobilization.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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