Possible scenario
Capitulation Then Bounce
35% Chance
The liquidation wave exhausts near-term forced selling after two consecutive flushes in leveraged longs. Spot buyers and market makers step back in once perpetual funding normalizes and ETF redemptions remain limited.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Technology +0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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