Possible scenario
Sustained Supply Disruption
30% Chance
Repeated Houthi attacks force Saudi Arabia to reduce refinery throughput or temporarily reroute crude and products. Markets price in a more durable loss of effective Saudi supply, pushing crude higher and weighing on fuel-sensitive sectors.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.2%
- Consumer Services -2.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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