Possible scenario
Attacks Partly Contained
35% Chance
Saudi air defenses and U.S. intelligence support reduce the immediate effectiveness of follow-on Houthi missile and drone attacks. Oil remains elevated, but traders begin to price in limited physical damage rather than a prolonged Saudi supply outage.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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