Possible scenario
Russia Demands More
20% Chance
Moscow treats the diesel offer as an opening bid and presses for broader sanctions relief, including shipping insurance, bank payments and fertilizer trade guarantees. Talks continue in form but make little substantive progress, frustrating Kyiv and European governments.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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