Possible scenario
Carve-Out Revives Talks
35% Chance
The Trump team persuades key G7 partners to consider a narrow, reversible diesel-sanctions waiver tied to verifiable Russian participation in talks. Moscow returns to the table without agreeing to a full ceasefire, while Kyiv accepts the format under US pressure because the relief is conditional and time-limited.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.8%
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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