Possible scenario
Allies Resist Relief
30% Chance
European allies and congressional hawks argue that easing diesel restrictions would reward Moscow while Russia still rules out a ceasefire. The proposal remains alive inside the White House but stalls before becoming a formal G7 sanctions change.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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