Possible scenario
U.S. Sanctions Expand
20% Chance
If Israeli enforcement appears weak, Washington is likely to reach first for targeted tools used since 2023: visa restrictions and Treasury sanctions against violent settlers or affiliated outposts. This would be symbolically important but limited in direct financial-market transmission.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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