Possible scenario
Severe Winter Blackouts
30% Chance
Russia's campaign overwhelms repairs and depletes interceptor stocks, leaving Ukraine with large generation and transmission losses before peak winter demand. The main impact is humanitarian and military-logistical, with modest but noticeable risk-off pricing across European-exposed assets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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