Possible scenario
Regulators Broaden Sweep
22% Chance
Turkey's Capital Markets Board and MASAK focus on market intermediaries, valuation agents, auditors, and custody chains rather than making the scandal primarily a party-political purge. This increases compliance and litigation risk but could also improve credibility if the process looks rules-based.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Business Services -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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