Possible scenario
Managed Party Purge
36% Chance
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan allows the probe to reach selected AK Party-linked figures while keeping the core cabinet and top party leadership intact. Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz's liquidation board and the Capital Markets Board frame the campaign as restitution for investors rather than a broader political rupture.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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