Possible scenario
AKP Infighting Widens
28% Chance
The asset targeting creates visible tension inside the AK Party between loyalists, provincial networks, and economic technocrats. Erdoğan contains the immediate threat, but resignations and selective leaks keep the crisis politically active.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.1%
- Business Services -0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.