Possible scenario
Geopolitical Disruption Deepens
25% Chance
The JMMC warning is validated by fresh disruption risk tied to Iran, the Red Sea, or tanker insurance constraints. This pushes crude higher and broadens the market reaction from an energy-sector event into a moderate global risk-off move.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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